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Old 12-13-2011, 10:26 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Exclamation Flurry & Apple Sales Report Conflicting Results

So, I am a bit confused this morning after a few weird things going on yesterday/today.

On Sunday I changed one of our apps, Color Companion, from free to Tier 2 ($1.99 US). When free it was averaging 100-200 downloads a day. It is a an app in the Productivity and Utilities category that is catered towards developers, designers, artists, etc.

The sales report the next day showed 88 free downloads and 4 paid downloads. This was as I expected.

The app includes the Flurry Analytics SDK and I have been tracking downloads on it for the last month. Flurry New Users have been matching (within 5-10%) Apple Sales reports each day.

After converting the app to $1.99, I also started a Flurry App Circle campaign later in the day with the minimum $250 and a $1.00 bid (above the minimum $0.75 bid).

Here is where the oddities begin:

1. Yesterday morning Flurry Analytics was showing a spike in New Users in the early morning hours (126 downloads). More downloads between 12am and 8am than I was getting when the app was free some days and during the time that the US is asleep. This spike was not seen previously ANY other day.

2. I ran MajicRank to see what this might be from and saw that it was ranking 64th in China for Top Grossing Productivity apps. In my mind, this made sense as China has a booming developer base and thought that it must be catering to them. This seemed positive.

3. The New Users continued to build throughout the day and after looking this morning, finished off at 262 for the entire day yesterday. Mind you, this is a day after changing the price to $1.99 so these SHOULD be all paid downloads. Note: I understand that some could be attributed to people downloading the free apps days before and not opening it until yesterday. If that is the case, why the spike WAY above what it would normally be?

4. Now flip to the App Circle results. In the first 12 hours, 70,000 impressions, 750 clicks, 0 installs. Next 24 hours, 2,000 impressions, 60 clicks, 0 installs.

5. Now flip to App Store reported sales this morning. 4 paid sales in all countries. 1 paid sale from China. 0 free sales.

So I ask myself, where did the 262 New Users come from? Why aren't they reported as sales (free or paid)? How could it be ranked 64th in China grossing with 1 sale? Why the abnormal New User spike if it isn't yesterdays sales? Why did App Circle present my app 70,000 times right off the bat and then cut it by 95%? Is it normal to get 0 sales in 24 hours from App Circle?

What is up with the stats and what am I missing? Any ideas?

A Little Extra Info:
The app has been received well with ALL 5 star reviews and NO crashes reported by Flurry in the current version. The app has localization in English, Chinese, French, Spanish, Korean, Russian, Japanese, Italian, and German. It has more features than apps it competes with and a nicer UX.
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Old 12-13-2011, 10:54 AM   #2 (permalink)
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You have a couple of things that can happen that off set the numbers. One thing that can be showing you numbers that don't add up is Apple's reports show transactions that have been processed and not all transactions are processed on the days that it was downloaded. Also you can have numbers that are off when a person buys an app and they install it on multiple devices this would show as a purchase once and not the multiple times that it was downloaded. As well as downloads removal and reinstalls will only show once. There are other things that can be causing numbers to be off. Don't check day to day check your numbers week to week like tuesdays to monday and they should level off.

We see the same issues in magazines as well since we know exactly who and when magazines get downloaded because it is coming out of our own servers so we know exactly what has happened and looking day to day is way off but when you step back and see week to week it lines up and if you look at month to month it gets even closer. But it is never perfect.


Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesCahall View Post
So, I am a bit confused this morning after a few weird things going on yesterday/today.

On Sunday I changed one of our apps, Color Companion, from free to Tier 2 ($1.99 US). When free it was averaging 100-200 downloads a day. It is a an app in the Productivity and Utilities category that is catered towards developers, designers, artists, etc.

The sales report the next day showed 88 free downloads and 4 paid downloads. This was as I expected.

The app includes the Flurry Analytics SDK and I have been tracking downloads on it for the last month. Flurry New Users have been matching (within 5-10%) Apple Sales reports each day.

After converting the app to $1.99, I also started a Flurry App Circle campaign later in the day with the minimum $250 and a $1.00 bid (above the minimum $0.75 bid).

Here is where the oddities begin:

1. Yesterday morning Flurry Analytics was showing a spike in New Users in the early morning hours (126 downloads). More downloads between 12am and 8am than I was getting when the app was free some days and during the time that the US is asleep. This spike was not seen previously ANY other day.

2. I ran MajicRank to see what this might be from and saw that it was ranking 64th in China for Top Grossing Productivity apps. In my mind, this made sense as China has a booming developer base and thought that it must be catering to them. This seemed positive.

3. The New Users continued to build throughout the day and after looking this morning, finished off at 262 for the entire day yesterday. Mind you, this is a day after changing the price to $1.99 so these SHOULD be all paid downloads. Note: I understand that some could be attributed to people downloading the free apps days before and not opening it until yesterday. If that is the case, why the spike WAY above what it would normally be?

4. Now flip to the App Circle results. In the first 12 hours, 70,000 impressions, 750 clicks, 0 installs. Next 24 hours, 2,000 impressions, 60 clicks, 0 installs.

5. Now flip to App Store reported sales this morning. 4 paid sales in all countries. 1 paid sale from China. 0 free sales.

So I ask myself, where did the 262 New Users come from? Why aren't they reported as sales (free or paid)? How could it be ranked 64th in China grossing with 1 sale? Why the abnormal New User spike if it isn't yesterdays sales? Why did App Circle present my app 70,000 times right off the bat and then cut it by 95%? Is it normal to get 0 sales in 24 hours from App Circle?

What is up with the stats and what am I missing? Any ideas?

A Little Extra Info:
The app has been received well with ALL 5 star reviews and NO crashes reported by Flurry in the current version. The app has localization in English, Chinese, French, Spanish, Korean, Russian, Japanese, Italian, and German. It has more features than apps it competes with and a nicer UX.
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Old 12-13-2011, 11:16 AM   #3 (permalink)
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There is a simpler explanation: your app was pirated.
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Old 12-13-2011, 11:19 AM   #4 (permalink)
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Quote:
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There is a simpler explanation: your app was pirated.
Yes this is also possible.
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Old 12-13-2011, 11:35 AM   #5 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masc2279 View Post
You have a couple of things that can happen that off set the numbers. One thing that can be showing you numbers that don't add up is Apple's reports show transactions that have been processed and not all transactions are processed on the days that it was downloaded. Also you can have numbers that are off when a person buys an app and they install it on multiple devices this would show as a purchase once and not the multiple times that it was downloaded. As well as downloads removal and reinstalls will only show once. There are other things that can be causing numbers to be off. Don't check day to day check your numbers week to week like tuesdays to monday and they should level off.

We see the same issues in magazines as well since we know exactly who and when magazines get downloaded because it is coming out of our own servers so we know exactly what has happened and looking day to day is way off but when you step back and see week to week it lines up and if you look at month to month it gets even closer. But it is never perfect.
This makes sense in general. But I do not see why it would cause a spike like it did. I'm hoping I'll see sales reported tomorrow that did not show up today. However, I am not that optimistic as a China sale WAS reported.

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There is a simpler explanation: your app was pirated.
I was thinking this was possible as well. Wouldn't this show up in Flurry as Jailbroken device? Still says 0 jailbroken devices.
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Old 12-13-2011, 01:02 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesCahall View Post
I was thinking this was possible as well. Wouldn't this show up in Flurry as Jailbroken device? Still says 0 jailbroken devices.
Depends how good Flurry is. Test it yourself, run it on a jailbroken device and see if Flurry catches that.
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Old 12-13-2011, 08:32 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dre View Post
Depends how good Flurry is. Test it yourself, run it on a jailbroken device and see if Flurry catches that.
In my data reports, flurry doesnt catch it :\
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Old 12-17-2011, 06:36 PM   #8 (permalink)
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^^ agree, Flurry doesn't find jailbroken devices.

Simply Google your app like "name_of _app ipa" or smth... true is out there

But still hope you have not been cracked.
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Old 12-17-2011, 06:55 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ordogroup View Post
^^ agree, Flurry doesn't find jailbroken devices.

Simply Google your app like "name_of _app ipa" or smth... true is out there

But still hope you have not been cracked.
Yeah. Forgot to reply but found out yesterday it was cracked. Not sure if there is anything to do about it.
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Old 12-18-2011, 05:55 AM   #10 (permalink)
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I am really new to this 'cracked' stuff, and my brain might possibly be unable to comprehend it all, but why and how? Is this a common occurrence?
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Old 12-18-2011, 07:00 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I think when there is a big spike and discrepancy with flurry it means app was pirated.
It happened to me.
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Old 03-21-2012, 02:44 AM   #12 (permalink)
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Yep when an app is pirated there is no telling the amount of sales in Tapjoy or Flurry.
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