Hey Steve,
Appency's conversion math is the logical analysis, and the reason why a lot of paid ad networks are tough to use, for the purpose of tracking actual install conversions. Fortunately, Flurry is getting around this problem with AppCircle, which charges promoters on a cost-per-install basis. You can
read more on our AppCircle site.
The basic idea in a nutshell is: given our vast data set, we are able to make relevant recommendations on applications to end users, and drive installs through our network (as opposed to and ad network, which is click/impression-driven). And of course, if you're paying for installs, it's measurable ROI with *no loss* of funds.
Check out our page, and please DM if you have more questions; I'd love to work with you (and anyone else) on figuring out the right way to roll you into our network.
Best!
Azeem